NFL Pick’em Against the Spread
NFL pick’em against the spread is the format serious pools graduate to. Instead of picking who wins, you pick who beats the point spread, so a 10-point favorite has to win by 11 to count. It turns every game into a coin flip on paper and rewards the players who actually know the league. This page explains how the spread works, how picks are graded, which spread your pool should use, the push rule, and how to pick well against the number.
What the spread means
The spread is the number of points the favorite is expected to win by. It is written next to the favorite as a negative number and next to the underdog as a positive one.
- Chiefs -7 / Dolphins +7. Kansas City is favored by seven.
- Pick the Chiefs and they must win by 8 or more.
- Pick the Dolphins and they cover by winning outright or losing by 6 or fewer.
- If the Chiefs win by exactly 7, the game is a push.
Half-point spreads such as -6.5 cannot push. The weekly games pages show the spread on every card.
How picks against the spread are graded
- Take the final score.
- Add the spread to the home team’s score. Home team at -3 that wins 27-20: 27 minus 3 is 24, still more than 20, so the home pick covers. Home team at +3 that loses 20-27: 20 plus 3 is 23, less than 27, so the home pick loses.
- Correct picks score one point (or the confidence number). Wrong picks score zero.
- A push scores half a point in most pools. Some score it as zero or as a win for both sides; write it down before Week 1.
Which spread does the pool use?
Lines move all week, so this is the rule most likely to cause an argument. There are two clean options.
- The line at the time of the pick. Each player is graded on the spread showing when they saved that pick. Fair to the early picker who found value, and no commissioner work. Online pools store the number with the pick.
- One line frozen for everyone. The spread is locked at a set moment, usually the week’s first kickoff on Thursday night, and every pick in the pool is graded against that number. Simplest to explain and best for paper pools.
Both rules are a setting when you start a free spread pool here: choose Against the spread as the pick type and then pick which spread grades the week.
How to pick against the spread
Forget who wins
The question is never who wins, it is who wins by more than the number. Great teams laying 10 at home lose against the spread all the time.
Key numbers
NFL games are decided by 3 and 7 more than any other margins. A spread of 2.5 versus 3.5, or 6.5 versus 7.5, matters a lot. Take the underdog at +3.5 and the favorite at -2.5 when you can.
Home underdogs
Teams getting points at home cover more often than the public expects. It is the oldest angle in the book because it keeps working a little.
Fade the obvious
When a team blows someone out on primetime TV, its spread next week moves too far. When a team gets embarrassed, the next number often overreacts the other way.
Do not tail last week
One week of results is noise. Look at a team’s last four games, injuries and travel before the number.
Against the spread with confidence points
Some pools combine both formats: grade every pick against the spread, then award the confidence number. It is the hardest common format and the one where skill shows most, because there are no safe 16-point picks. See the confidence pool guide for the ranking rules.
Paper pools against the spread
Use the spread version of the free printable pick’em sheets, which prints the current line next to every team. Print it at the moment the pool freezes the lines, note the print time on the sheet, and everyone is graded on the same numbers.
Start a free against-the-spread pool
Create a pool, choose Against the spread, choose the spread rule and share the link. The pick form shows the line on each team, stores the number with every pick, grades pushes as half a point and updates the standings as games go final.
Pick’em against the spread questions
What is a push?
The final margin equals the spread exactly. Nobody covers. Most pools award half a point.
Where do the spreads come from?
From a major US sportsbook, refreshed through the week. Pools on this site show the source line on every card for reference only; the site does not take bets.
Can the commissioner set their own spreads?
On paper, yes. Online pools here use the published line so nobody can dispute it.
Is 50 percent against the spread good?
Yes. Over a season, 55 percent is excellent and 60 percent usually wins the pool.
Do pick’em pools use the moneyline?
No. The moneyline is the price to bet a team straight up. Pick’em pools use the spread or nothing.
What if the spread changes after I pick?
Depends on the pool rule. Either your pick keeps the line it was saved with, or everyone is graded on one frozen line at first kickoff.